The Polls Could Be Wrong—And Still Benefit Harris

A political strategist said Wednesday that previous elections meant current polling, showing a near tie between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, could be wrong and the Democratic candidate could win.
Speaking on Bloomberg TV, political analyst and pollster Evan Roth Smith said polling appearing to favor Trump was a sign of overweighting for the Republican.
“I think the odds of an error in this election likely is a polling error in favor of Vice President Kamala Harris,” he said.
Host Lisa Abramowicz had asked Roth Smith about pollsters being so self-conscious about not getting the numbers wrong after Trump’s victory in 2016 that they were overcompensating in his favor.
The strategist said polls underestimated the last Black candidate at the top of the ticket: former President Barack Obama in 2012. After being underestimated by around 6 percent, he won with 51.1 percent of the vote.
“Polling is good at establishing what a given electorate is going to do. It’s not always so good at picking up on changes in the electorate, like the kind of high turnout you get from Black voters when there’s a Black candidate on offer,” he added.
Roth Smith also pointed to the 2022 midterm elections, which he said had been a polling miss because they showed less support for the Republican Party than there turned out to be.
In August, the Pew Research Center (PRC) said restoring trust in polling is “an important goal” in this election, as it helps hold those in power to account for what voters want.
Adjustments have been made in recent years, including a greater focus on opt-in online methods instead of landline phone calls.
The PRC said weighting results based on the age, race and gender of participants has been found to be “insufficient for getting accurate results,” and more factors are now being used to try to give a more accurate picture.
Since Harris’ nomination, polling has shown an extremely tight race, with a seemingly constant switch between her and Trump in the lead by a narrow margin. That has been even more pronounced in the seven key swing states both candidates have been targeting.
In the last two weeks of the election, however, the candidates have chosen to take different approaches, with Harris planning a visit to the Republican stronghold of Texas and Trump rallying at Madison Square Garden in New York City.
Both candidates are trying to win over as many undecided voters as possible to secure a clear path to the 270 Electoral College votes needed to become president.
Roth Smith said this was about “the attention war,” adding that candidates could go to swing states multiple times for rallies, but now it was about getting into other voters’ living rooms.
“Winning the attention battle with a couple of hours of your time and then going back to the campaign trail is not a silly way to spend your time,” he added.